William Gardner
McCain Might Not Even Need Obama's Independents
There is a strain of conventional wisdom that holds that Barack Obama's resounding win in Iowa is bad news for John McCain.
The reason: McCain and Obama both enjoy strong support among New Hampshire's crucial bloc of independent voters. And with Obama ascendant after his resounding Iowa win, independents are now more likely to participate in the Democratic primary, potentially depriving McCain of thousands of votes that would otherwise be his.
There is certainly some truth to this. History shows that independents in New Hampshire break lopsidedly to one party or the other, and even before Iowa, polls had independents --by a 60 to 40 margin, in one recent survey -- favoring the Democratic race. (New Hampshire's secretary of state Bill Gardner today predicted 90,000 independents turning out for the Democrat primary and 60,000 for the Republican.)Plus, the turnout figures in Iowa, in which the previous Democratic turnout record was doubled, in part because of unprecedented independent participation, suggest a larger trend favoring Obama and the Democrats. read more »
New Hampshire's Waiting Game is Fine by Hillary
Which model will fit the Democrats in 2008? That’s the kind of conversation Granite Staters are having these days—whether they’re waiting for Mrs. Clinton to show up or for Carl Levin to blink. read more »
