Polls

Quinnipiac is out with a poll showing Michael Bloomberg’s approval rating is down nine percentage points, but in hypothetical match-ups against his two likely Democratic mayoral rivals, he would win re-election.  read more »

The new Siena poll seems to prove that voters statewide are, like city voters, able to be supportive of term limits without being unsupportive of the executive who happens to be in charge.

David Paterson’s approval rating is up (although he’d still lose in a hypothetical match-up to Michael Bloomberg, 43 to 47), even as a majority of voters said they support an eight-year term limit on state  read more »

Thirty-eight percent of New Yorkers polled by Quinnipiac want to see Michael Bloomberg elected mayor again in 2009.

Which will help fuel rumors that he may somehow work to overturn the term limits that currently prevent him from seeking the position a third time.

Since it's fairly unlikely Bloomberg could do that, here's how the other 2009 mayoral candidates did.

Overall:
12% Ray Kelly
11% Marty Markowitz
10 % Anthony Weiner
7% Bill Thompson and Christine Quinn
4% Betsy Gotbaum

Among Democrats only:

12% Markowitz
11% Weiner
10% Quinn
8% Thompson

Among independent voters, Markowitz, Kelly and Weiner each took 12 percent.

These pre-pre election polls have limited significance for any actual contest, but according to this poll from Siena, Michael Bloomberg is benefiting from his continued popularity as mayor, beating both David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo in a hypothetical gubernatorial election.

Here are some other interesting bits:

Paterson wins over Andrew Cuomo among upstate Democratic voters, 51-28.

Rudy Giuliani beats Bloomberg among Jewish Republican voters, 80-20.

Bloomberg beats Paterson among independent voters, 62-26.

And Giuliani edges Paterson among upstate voters, 43-42.

The poll was conducted by phone between July 7 and 10 and included responses from 626 registered voters.

A Quinnipiac poll released this morning affirms, not particularly shockingly, that identity politics is alive and well in New York.

The survey of hypothetical general election match ups in the state found:  read more »

Voters are overwhelmingly (77 percent) in favor of raising taxes on New Yorkers making more than $1 million per year, according to a poll released today by Quinnipiac. Republicans support the plan 65 - 31; Democrats back it 83 - 13.  read more »

Hillary Clinton now leads Barack Obama in Ohio 49-45, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac (which will be posted here shortly).

That's a significant narrowing of her lead, and just barely outside the 3.5 percent margin of error. In a Quinnipiac poll released February 14, Clinton led 55-34 percent, and in a February 25 poll she led 51-40.  read more »

A majority of voters in New York State still have an unfavorable view of Eliot Spitzer, according to a new Siena poll.

His rating, according to the poll, is 41 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable. The poll also shows only 25 percent of voters would re-elect him right now, while 50 percent say they prefer someone else.

What’s also interesting is the lack of support for Spitzer’s plan to close the budget gap by reducing aid in education, maintaining health care cuts and not raising taxes.  read more »

John McCain now leads Rudy Giuliani, 36-24, in the former mayor's home state of New York, according to a new Siena poll. Hillary Clinton maintains her lead over Barack Obama, 48-23.

The poll also shows more New York State voters approve of Eliot Spitzer than disapprove of him for the first time since October. His favorable-unfavorable rating of 44-41 is up from 35-50 in December.

However, Spitzer would lose a hypothetical re-election race against Michael Bloomberg, with only 32 percent to Bloomberg's 50 percent. (Bloomberg has given no indication he is planning a run for governor, and either have his aides.)

Release, with detailed findings, after the jump.  read more »

Two new independent polls, both conducted on Friday and Saturday, show the Democratic race dead even in New Hampshire. CNN's has Obama and Clinton knotted at 33 percent -- a three-point gain for Obama from before Iowa and a one-point drop for Hillary.  read more »

Yes, Eliot Spitzer’s re-election is three years away, so keep that in mind when you consider the importance of his poll numbers.

But in a new survey from Siena, which will be posted here shortly, Spitzer has a 36 percent approval rating from state voters, and one in three Democrats is prepared to re-elect him.

Also, 67 percent of voters oppose a pay raise for state legislators, which Spitzer said he’d support.

In polls in the early states, Huckabee's up, Clinton's down, and Obama edges ahead in Iowa.

After a press conference this morning about opening a new school in Battery Park City, I asked Eliot Spitzer what he thought of the Siena poll numbers that were coming out, showing support for him and his driver’s license plan dropping below 50 percent.

Here’s what he said.

“Look. Only, as I’ve said on numerous occasions, this is a  tough issue. And it’s one where we’re continuing to try to talk to the public, explain why we took the position that I have thus far and explain what issues we’re trying to address. And--but I understand you don’t need to see the most recent poll to understand this is an issue that has touched a nerve in the public. And we’re trying to address that in a thoughtful, modulated way. And we’ll see where we go and that is a conversation that I think will continue.”

Rudy Giuliani has overtaken Hillary Clinton in Florida, according to a new poll by Quinnipiac.

In a head-to-head match up, Giuliani now leads Clinton in that state 46-43, a reversal from the results of an October 10 Quinnipiac poll.

Two thirds of New York voters think Eliot Spitzer needs to be more forthright his involvement in the plan to use the state police to create records on Joe Bruno’s use of state aircraft, according to a poll being released today by Siena College.

By a margin of 70-19 percent, voters want Spitzer to testify publicly, according to the poll.

Spitzer’s favorability rating dropped from 59-28 in July to 56-26 now. 44 percent say he’s doing an excellent or good job, but 49 percent say he’s doing a fair or poor job.

Pollster Steven Greenberg had this interesting piece of analysis. “Unlike most statewide Democrats, Spitzer appears to be strongest Upstate and not among the traditional Democratic base of  New York City voters.”

And in a fun hypothetical scenario in which Andrew Cuomo challenges Spitzer in a gubernatorial primary, Spitzer beats Cuomo 47 to 24.

Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani lead in the race for their parties' nominations for president among Florida voters and are dead even in a head-to-head match-up, according to a new poll out today by Quinnipiac.

Clinton leads her closest Democratic rival in the primary, Barack Obama, by 29 points. Giuliani leads his closest rival, Fred Thompson, by 11. Head-to-head, Clinton and Giuliani are both at 44 percent. In an August poll by Quinnipiac, Clinton edged out Giuliani 46 to 44 percent.

The pollsters suggest that Giuliani may be in trouble because 31 percent of Republican voters in Florida say their decision about whom to support may be affected if a candidate was "divorced more than once."

For the record, Giuliani's marital record goes like this: divorced once, got an annulment before that, and has been married three times.

A new Quinnipiac poll out today shows New Yorkers opposing congestion pricing by 57 to 36 percent.

Weirdly, opposition to congestion pricing rises two percentage points when people are told the money would go to prevent transit fare and toll hikes.

When told the money would go to prevent transit fare and toll hikes, the numbers flip and people support the plan 57 to 38.

When told that $354 million for transportation improvements was contingent on implementing the plan, 51 percent of respondents considered it “federal meddling."

Here's how the opposition to congestion pricing breaks down by borough:

36 - 54 percent in Manhattan
61 - 30 percent in Queens;
60 - 34 percent in Brooklyn;
74 - 21 percent in The Bronx;
56 - 39 percent in Staten Island.

UPDATE: The original post was based on my partial misreading of teh results, which were, it turns out, not so weird after all. Apologies.

Quinnipiac has a poll out today showing New Yorkers think Michael Bloomberg is effective, if not particularly warm and fuzzy.

He wins a hypothetical re-election in 2009 over a fantasy field of candidates including Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani (imagine those campaign ads!).

As for the popularity of Bloomberg's potential mayoral replacements, the poll showed Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, who’s been making the rounds and hiring some new people, leading the pack of likely mayoral candidates with a 62 - 25  percent job approval rating. That figure includes 81 percent from Republicans and 62 percent from Democrats. And only 13 percent of people were undecided about him.

Here are the numbers for other likely mayoral candidates: Christine Quinn has a 44 - 16 percent job approval rating; Bill Thompson has an approval rating of 41 - 12, and Betsy Gotbaum’s approval rating is 39 - 18. Each had more than 40 percent of people undecided.

A new poll from Quinnipiac today has Hillary Clinton leading Rudy Giuliani in a head-to-head match up, 46 to 43 percent.

Interestingly, Clinton leads Giuliani among independent voters, 42 to 40 percent, and more or less holds her own against him among male voters, 42 to 49. Female voters prefer Clinton over Giuliani 49 to 29 percent.

The poll also showed Giuliani tied with Barack Obama at 42 percent. In that match-up, Obama loses independent voters to Giuliani 37 to 42 percent.

Here's a good poll for Hillary Clinton, showing her performing well in swing states in a hypothetical match-up against Rudy Giuliani. Also, this:

"Sen. Clinton has increased her substantial Democratic primary lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to 25 points in Ohio, 16 points in Pennsylvania and 30 points in Florida."  read more »

A Quinnipiac poll released today shows Eliot Spitzer’s job approval rating having dropped significantly, despite the fact that a majority of respondents still find him "trustworthy."

In June, before the governor’s top aides were found to have used the state police to gather travel information about Joe Bruno in order to plant unfavorable stories about him, Spitzer’s approval-disapproval rating was 60 to 22 percent. Today, it's 48 to 28 percent.

In terms of being “honest” and “trustworthy,” Spitzer is at 58 to 26 percent, compared, for the sake of reference, to Andrew Cuomo’s rating, which is 58 to 20. Also on the bright side for Spitzer, there was this question: Who would make a better governor, Spitzer or Cuomo? Democrats prefer Spitzer, 51 to 29 percent. Republicans say the same thing, by a margin of 42 to 25. Overall the number 45 to 25, with 30 percent undecided.

New York City voters support congestion pricing 58 to 36 if the money goes towards preventing a transit fare hike, according to a new poll by Quinnipiac University.

Here’s a breakdown by borough:

Manhattan: 59 to 37
Queens: 53 to 38
Brooklyn: 59 to 35
The Bronx: 61 to 34
Staten Island: 60 to 32

Another interesting figure in the poll is from question 25, which asked how much control the next mayor should have over the city’s public schools.

51 percent said that the next mayor should share control with some kind of school board, and another 9 percent said the next mayor should give it up completely. Only 28 percent said the next mayor should retain control completely.

Rudy Giuliani would lose Florida to Hillary Clinton if Michael Bloomberg were running in the presidential election, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University.

In a head to head match up, Giuliani narrowly beats out Clinton in Florida 46 to 44 percent, but loses to her 41 to 39 percent, with Bloomberg taking about 9 percent.

That’s 27 electoral college votes Bloomberg could affect, but so far, not win himself.

In another hypothetical three-way race, Barack Obama beats out Fred Thompson, 38 to 32, with Bloomberg at 14 percent.

A Michael Bloomberg candidacy would help Democrats win the crucial battleground state of Ohio, according to a new poll by Quinnipiac.

In a three-way presidential race, Hillary Clinton would beat Rudy Giuliani in that state, 40 to 35 percent, with 10 percent of the vote going to Bloomberg.

Without Bloomberg in the race, Clinton would only beat Giuliani in Ohio by 44 to 42 percent, well within the poll’s 4.3 percent margin of error.

In another hypothetical three-way match, Barack Obama would beat Fred Thompson in Ohio 44 to 34 percent. Add Bloomberg into that scenario, and Obama wins 38 to 27, with Bloomberg getting 15 percent.

“These results indicate that a Bloomberg candidacy would make it easier for the Democrats to carry Ohio's crucial electoral votes,” said Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown.  read more »

61 percent of people in and around New York oppose congestion pricing, according to a new Marist poll released just now.

Manhattan residents are least skeptical of the measure, with 48 percent in favor and 46 percent opposed.

Rudy Giuliani holds a slim four point lead over Hillary Clinton in New Jersey, and splits the state evenly with her if Michael Bloomberg joins the fray, according to a new poll by the Quinnipiac Polling Institute.

In a head-to-head match up, Giuliani leads Clinton 47 to 44 percent, down from the 49 to 40 percent lead he had in April.

And with Bloomberg in the race, the two other candidates split New Jersey with 36 percent apiece, while the independent billionaire gets 18 percent.

Since Bloomberg's quasi-campaign began, the big question has been whether he would hurt the Republican or Democratic candidate more. The answer, at least according to this one poll, in this one state, is that he would be more dangerous to the GOP. Or at least, to the GOP if it nominates another (former) mayor of New York City.

Michael Bloomberg is 2 percentage points behind Eliot Spitzer among New York voters in a hypothetical gubernatorial race, according to a poll released today by Siena.

Spitzer leads Bloomberg 43 to 41 statewide, but Bloomberg leads Spitzer among city voters, 49 to 37 percent. Upstate, Spitzer leads Bloomberg 55 to 24 percent.

Somewhere, Joe Bruno and Fred Dicker are smiling.

Other numbers from the poll show Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani leading their races for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, respectively.

Hillary Clinton trounces Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg, in a theoretical-but-no-longer-so-unimaginable three-way, all-New York presidential poll of New York voters released today by Quinnipiac University.

Clinton gets 43 percent of the vote, Giuliani gets 29 percent and Bloomberg gets 16. Without Bloomberg in the race, Clinton’s lead grows to 52 percent while Giuliani’s inches up to 37 percent, the poll shows.

Other findings from the poll: while Giuliani ties Barack Obama here, the former mayor would lose to Al Gore.

New York voters give Eliot Spitzer an approval rating of 60 to 22 percent, but oppose congestion pricing 52 to 31 percent, according to a poll from Quinnipiac today.

In a public statement, the pollster notes, “But if the money from
congestion pricing were used to prevent an increase in mass transit
fares and bridge and tunnel tolls, voters statewide support the
proposal 52 - 36 percent.” Which fits a pattern
I noted earlier. When asked in generic terms about a plan that entails paying money for something that was free, people oppose it. When they're nudged (but not pushed!) in the other direction with details about the de-congesting benefits of the plan and where the money would go, more people favor it.

As for Spitzer, Democrats give him an approval rating of 66 to 18 percent. But Republicans give Spitzer, a Democrat, high numbers too: 53 to 30 percent. Independent voters approve of Spitzer’s job performance
so far 60 to 17 percent.

According to the poll, New Yorkers are split on gay marriage, with 35 percent supporting it, 35 supporting civil unions instead of gay marriage and 22 percent against any legal recognition of same-sex couples.  read more »

This poll must be welcome news in Hillaryland.

A CBS/New York Times survey has Hillary Clinton's lead over Barack Obama at a whopping 22 points. That's a jump from last month, when her lead was a respectable 15 points.

To put it in context, the pollsters said, "Clinton's support is 7 points higher than a month ago, while Obama's has remained steady and Edwards' has dropped 7 points. But Among African-American voters, Obama now runs about even with Clinton. In the combined March and April polls, only one-third of African-American Democrats said they were backing Obama."

That was quick.

Supporters of congestion pricing are taking issue with the methodology of a new Quinnipiac poll which showed New Yorkers split on the issue.

“Asking people if they want to pay more to drive without explaining what they are paying for doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know,” said Kathy Wylde, president and CEO of the Partnership for NYC.

“When New Yorkers learn of the many benefits that come from congestion pricing, they become supporters,“ said Gene Russianoff of NYPIRG/Straphangers Campaign, a member of the 80-plus groups in the Campaign for New York’s Future.

Transporation advocate and blogger Aaron Naparstek has more criticism of the poll here.

I'm waiting for a response from Quinnipiac.

Here's a statistic that'll be meat and drink to the New York Post, if not to the mayor and his aides:

More NYC voters said they would back Mike Bloomberg for governor than for president, according to a poll released today by the Quinnipiac Polling Institute.

13 percent of people surveyed said they would definitely vote for Bloomberg if he ran for president. 24 said they probably would vote for him.

That’s compared to 27 percent of people who said they’d definitely support Bloomberg for governor, and another 33 percent who said they probably would support him in that race.

 read more »

"Obama Runs Best Against GOP Front-Runner Giuliani" is the headline for the press release accompanying a new Quinnipiac poll, countering the notion that Hillary Clinton would fare best in the match-up that almost happened when she ran for Senate in 2000.

The survey was taken by 1,166 voters, including 469 Republicans and 499 Democrats.

One of the questions they were all asked of was “If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?”

Here are the results from that head to head match-up:

Giuliani gets 92 percent of the Republican vote; Hillary gets 83 percent of the Democratic vote. But Giuliani beats Hillary 47 to 37 among Independents, and 46 to 44 percent among women.

Mark Penn will have an explanation, I'm sure.

But I just thought that was kind of interesting.