Anne Northup

It's official: Republican Congresswoman Anne Northup, a five-term incumbent from Kentucky's Third District, has lost her bid for re-election. This is a classic swing district that Northup had aptly catered to for the past decade. Her defeat is a very bad omen for Republican incumbents in similar districts across the country.

Three-quarters of the votes in Kentucky's 3rd District are now in, and Republican incumbent Anne Northup still trails Democrat John Yarmuth by three points. Another bad, bad sign for the GOP's prospects nationally. -- Steve Kornacki

Returns are now streaming in from Kentucky and Indiana, each home to several bellwether House races. With the caveat that we have no idea where in the district these numbers are coming from, the initial numbers from Kentucky's 3rd District spell trouble for the GOP. With 37 percent reporting:

John Yarmuth (Dem) 51% Anne Northup (Rep) 48%

Northup is a fifth-term incumbent who has had close calls before and John Kerry did win this district by a sliver in 2004, but a GOP loss here would probably signal a very big national Democratic wave. Yarmuth, who edits an alt-weekly newspaper, is seen as a very flawed candidate - someone Northup would handily beat if the national climate hadn't made the contest competitive.