The Gallup Organization

Two radically different story lines are emerging in the presidential race, depending on what kind of poll you look at.

If you look at the national-level data, Barack Obama seems to be underachieving. In the latest Gallup daily tracking poll, the presumptive Democratic nominee holds a scant two-point edge over John McCain. The margin is also two points in Rasmussen's daily poll—which also shows a dead-even race when "leaners" are factored in. Some other recent polls have been a little more favorable to Obama, but the combined weight of the available national data strongly suggests that Obama, despite his personal popularity and the enormous built-in advantages his party enjoys this year, is locked in a much closer race than he should be.  read more »

More evidence that Rudy Giuliani's liberal social positions are either a) unimportant to the national Republican base or b) unknown to them.

A new Gallup poll finds that "only three candidates would be acceptable to a majority of Republicans." The are, in order: Giuliani with 73%, Condoleezza Rice with 68% and John McCain with 55%.

Read the whole summary here.

-- Josh Benson

George W.  read more »

These things come in waves, somehow, and this is not Hillary's moment. Drudge has numbers from the new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll:

"CNNGALLUP found that 51 percent say they definitely won't vote for Clinton (D-N.Y.) in 2008, another 32 percent might consider it, and only 16 percent vow to back her. That means committed anti-Hillary voters outnumber pro-Hillary voters by 3-1. The poll suggests she can forget about crossover votes - 90 percent of Republicans and 75 percent of conservatives say there's no way they'd back her."  read more »

NOTE: Yes, this was in The Post this morning. Wednesday mornings are a little rough around here. Sorry.