Obama Flawed Like Bill Was
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Wise Guys
If anyone ought to be skeptical about the notion that Barack Obama’s fall prospects have been damaged by the primary process, it’s the Clintons.
With Mr. Obama in mathematical control of the Democratic race (despite West Virginia), Hillary Clinton’s supporters have fallen back on the argument that Mr. Obama’s chances have been harmed, especially among those much-discussed “white working-class voters,” for the coming contest against John McCain.
It’s worth noting, though, that Bill Clinton himself had to overcome a very similar assertion—that he had emerged from primary season as damaged goods—on his way to the White House in 1992.
Around this very time back then, Mr. Clinton shook off his final Democratic opponent, Jerry Brown, only to find the party faithful shaking their heads in dismay. He trailed badly in national polls, a distant third behind President George H. W. Bush and independent Ross Perot, barely cracking 20 percent. After months of questions about his character, triggered by the Gennifer Flowers and Vietnam draft scandals but exacerbated by Mr. Clinton’s own too-cute-by-half rhetorical habits, his personal favorable rating lay in ruins—an astonishingly feeble 16 percent, according to a CBS-New York Times poll in June ’92.
No Democrat since George McGovern in 1972 (including Walter Mondale) had emerged from the primary process in worse shape—and no nominee has ever seemed so weak since then. And Mr. Clinton’s predicament seemed doubly dire because his struggles came in the face of the public’s loud clamor for change. Americans were itching to toss Mr. Bush and the Republicans out of the White House, but still they were tuning out the Arkansas governor.
Against the same “Republican attack machine” that had so monstrously carved up Michael Dukakis four years earlier, Mr. Clinton, the intraparty and media consensus went, was doomed. Top Democrats, it was reported, had concluded that “the so-called character issue, which bedeviled Clinton in the primaries, will prevent a critical number of voters from supporting him.”
Whoops.
Mr. Clinton, as you may have heard, shook off the apocalyptic forecasts and won a commanding victory in the fall, racking up 370 electoral votes and holding Mr. Bush to the worst performance for an incumbent since William Howard Taft finished third in 1912. And contrary to some revisionists on the right, Mr. Perot—who exited the race in mid-July only to reenter it at the start of October—hardly made a difference: Mr. Clinton’s lead over Mr. Bush was actually much larger in the months when Mr. Perot was on the sidelines than after his reentry.
The story of Mr. Clinton’s ’92 revival is one well worth keeping in mind now. The situations aren’t perfectly analogous—Mr. Clinton had the good fortune of running against a politically clumsy incumbent during a recession, while Mr. Obama faces a non-incumbent Republican nominee with a knack for connecting with independent voters—but the key ingredients that spurred Mr. Clinton are in place for Mr. Obama.
For one, just as in ’92, the electorate is agitating for change, of both the partisan and generational varieties.
In ’92, the country was mired in a recession (well, that was the perception, anyway—economists later declared that the slump had ended in November 1991) and the G.O.P. had held the White House for 12 years, the longest streak for one party since World War II. This made the public more receptive to the Democrats than in any of the previous three elections, and also far less willing to abide a Republican campaign based on character assassination.
The public looks even more derisively on the G.O.P. this year, with open-ended military commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan and a sputtering economy. Change is again in the air, an atmosphere that benefits the younger, “fresher” candidate. Mr. Clinton was 22 years younger than Mr. Bush in ’92, while Mr. Obama is 25 years Mr. McCain’s junior.
But Mr. Clinton’s main weapon in ’92 was personal: a story and a style that wore well with voters, reassured them, and made them want to give him the benefit of the doubt. Mr. Clinton got a fresh look from the public when the Democratic convention convened in July ’92, and his pitch-perfect reintroduction sent his poll numbers soaring. When it was over, he led Mr. Bush by nearly 30 points, and never again trailed in a single general-election poll.
Mr. Clinton’s story shows that even when the man and the mood match, it can still take voters a while to come around. But they do, eventually.
- Poll
- Obama (D)
- McCain(R)
- Spread
- RCP Average
- 45.8
- 41.8
- Obama +4.0
- Candidate
- Favorable
- Unfavorable
- Spread
- Obama
- 55.6
- 33.0
- +22.6
- McCain
- 52.6
- 34.3
- +18.3
Bill Clinton was "damaged," but how much of that damage was inflicted by other Democrats? How many former Democratic occupants of the White House repeated right-wing charges against Bill Clinton?
I have no doubt that Barack Obama has the intellect, character, and integrity to be president. I have no doubt that he has the best interests of the people at heart. I do wonder how many ears, eyes, and minds have been shut against him by people who used to carry great credibility within the Democratic party, namely the Clintons themselves.
Bill Clinton was able to overcome his wounds in the general election. But it may turn out that stab wounds in the back aren't so easily healed.
EXCEPT, OF COURSE, BILL HAD LARGE HANDS NOT SMALL HANDS LIKE BARRY WHO CLEARLY LOVES GETTING FUCKED UP HIS HALF WHITE ASS BY MICHELLE USING HER STANDARD 10'' STRAP ON
DOWN WITH THIS LOSER OSAMA
At a time when the Democratic party should have been salivating at the notion of taking on anyone from the other side, they are sadly killing themselves.
At a time when Sen. Obama could have started the ball rolling against Sen. McCain, He has continued to have to fend off the attacks from the Clinton's.
All those attacks have managed to do is give people pause to rethink who Sen. Obama really is.
His speeches are great and they preach change. Change which most american's pray for.
Unfortunately, the longer the Democrats spend fighting, the more people learn that Sen. Obama really hasn't done anything in all his time in elective office that will offer proof that he CAN make the changes really necessary.
We'll see....
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OBAMA & EDWARDS IS THE TICKET ... (not verified) says:
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Brilliant move by Obama.
'OBAMA & EDWARDS' IS THE DREAM TICKET.
'OBAMA & EDWARDS' ticket defeats Hillary's arguments to the superdelegates that an Obama ticket cannot attract the "white, working class" voters.
IT'S OVER.
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Except, while Clinton was damaged goods, he was not the far left liberal that Obama is today. Clinton was economically conservative and semi-socially liberal, which made him more appealing after the long process. He also talked about hope and change a lot but he wasn't going on being a national senator for less than half of a term but a governor for 12 years.
You're grasping at straws here.
Here's a New Yorker who claims she has the scoop on Obama's "secretly confirmed" running mate. What do you think?
http://www.yippi.com/getdagoss/blogs/?id=4225
HEY MICHELLE, I would love to discuss your position that Obama is so far left that he can't be elected. Please list specifically those policies of his (I assume you have been to his website to educate yourself) that are too left and out of touch with the mood and needs of the country.
Second, your claim that he doesn't have any experience except a few years as a a US Senator ignores his experience as a state senator in Illinois (my state), his experience as a constitutional law instructor (handy, don't you think, in comparison to the current administration's and McCain's misunderstanding of the constitution), his experience in community organizing regarding jobs and health care and his experience as a human rights attorney (foregoing more lucrative jobs in the private sector), his experience running the Harvard Law Review, starting in his SECOND YEAR in law school (if you haven't been to law school, as I have, you may not understand how amazing that accomplishment is).
Regarding his state senate experience, please consider his record, as follows:
Obama was elected to the Illinois Senate in 1996 and remained a state senator for the next 8 years until his election to the US Senate. In the IL Senate Obama gained bipartisan support for legislation reforming ethics and health care laws. He sponsored a law increasing tax credits for low-income workers, negotiated welfare reform, and promoted increased subsidies for childcare. Obama also led the passage of legislation, with bipartisan support, mandating videotaping of homicide interrogations, and a law to monitor racial profiling by requiring police to record the race of drivers they detained. Obama was reelected to the Illinois Senate in 1998, and again in 2002.
In January 2003, Obama became chairman of the Illinois Senate's Health and Human Services Committee when Democrats, after a decade in the minority (showing that his passage of bipartisan bills while in the minority party in prior years is impressive), regained a majority. During his 2004 general election campaign for U.S. Senate, police representatives credited Obama for his active engagement with police organizations in enacting death penalty reforms. Obama resigned from the Illinois Senate in November 2004 following his election to the US Senate.
Also, please consider his record in the US Senate, as follows:
Obama took an active role in the Senate's drive for improved border security and immigration reform. In 2005, he cosponsored the "Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act" introduced by Republican John McCain of Arizona. He later added three amendments to the "Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act", which passed the Senate in May 2006, but failed to gain majority support in the House of Representatives. In September 2006, Obama supported a related bill, the Secure Fence Act, authorizing construction of fencing and other security improvements along the United States–Mexico border. President Bush signed the Secure Fence Act into law in October 2006, calling it "an important step toward immigration reform."
Partnering with Republican Senators Richard Lugar of Indiana and then Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, Obama successfully introduced two initiatives bearing his name. "Lugar-Obama" expanded the Nunn-Lugar cooperative threat reduction concept to conventional weapons, including shoulder-fired missiles and anti-personnel mines and expanded nuclear non-proliferation protections. The "Coburn-Obama Transparency Act" authorized the establishment of USAspending.gov, a web search engine launched in December 2007 and run by the Office of Management and Budget. After Illinois residents complained of waste water contamination by a neighboring nuclear plant, Obama sponsored legislation requiring plant owners to notify state and local authorities of radioactive leaks. A compromise version of the bill was subsequently blocked by partisan disputes and later reintroduced. In December 2006, President Bush signed into law the "Democratic Republic of the Congo Relief, Security, and Democracy Promotion Act," marking the first federal legislation to be enacted with Obama as its primary sponsor.
In January 2007, Obama worked with Democrat Russ Feingold of Wisconsin to eliminate gifts of travel on corporate jets by lobbyists to members of Congress and require disclosure of bundled campaign contributions under the "Honest Leadership and Open Government Act," which was signed into law in September 2007. He introduced S. 453, a bill to criminalize deceptive practices in federal elections, including fraudulent flyers and automated phone calls, as witnessed in the 2006 midterm elections. Obama also introduced the "Iraq War De-Escalation Act of 2007," a bill to cap troop levels in Iraq, begin phased redeployment, and remove all combat brigades from Iraq before April 2008.
Later in 2007, Obama sponsored an amendment to the Defense Authorization Act adding safeguards for personality disorder military discharges, and calling for an official review following reports that the procedure had been used inappropriately to reduce government costs. He sponsored the "Iran Sanctions Enabling Act" supporting divestment of state pension funds from Iran's oil and gas industry, and joined Republican Chuck Hagel of Nebraska in introducing legislation to reduce risks of nuclear terrorism. A provision from the Obama-Hagel bill was passed by Congress in December 2007 as an amendment to the State-Foreign Operations appropriations bill. Obama also sponsored a Senate amendment to the State Children's Health Insurance Program providing one year of job protection for family members caring for soldiers with combat-related injuries. The legislation passed both houses of Congress with bipartisan majorities, but was blocked from becoming law by President Bush in October 2007.
Obama held assignments on the Senate Committees for Foreign Relations, Environment and Public Works and Veterans' Affairs through December 2006. In January 2007, he left the Environment and Public Works committee and took additional assignments with Health, Education, Labor and Pensions and Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. He also became Chairman of the Senate's subcommittee on European Affairs.
As a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Obama has made official trips to Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. In August 2005, he traveled to Russia, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan. The trip focused on strategies to control the world's supply of conventional weapons, biological weapons, and weapons of mass destruction as a first defense against terrorist attacks. Following meetings with U.S. military in Kuwait and Iraq in January 2006, he visited Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinian territories. At a meeting with Palestinian students two weeks before Hamas won the legislative election, Obama warned that "the U.S. will never recognize winning Hamas candidates unless the group renounces its fundamental mission to eliminate Israel." He left for his third official trip in August 2006, traveling to South Africa, Kenya, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Chad. In a speech at the University of Nairobi, he spoke about political corruption and ethnic rivalries.
OTHER EXPERIENCE AND SKILLS
Obama has also run a flawless wildly successful campaign without the initial support of the party establishment and has written two incredible books about his struggles to integrate his biracial history into a cohesive self-image and about his experience and beliefs in politics. He is the only candidate, by the way, who did not use a ghost writer to assist him with his books.
Is that enough experience for you?
I invite you to give me Clinton and McCain's legislative accomplishments and life experience that relate to running this country. (Don't forget to mention how McCain graduated 4th from the bottom of his class at the Naval Academy, where he got in because his father and grandfather went there.)
Bill Clinton had a lot of experience and was very talented. He was a very capable good President. Barack Obama is very limited in his experience and is a creation of political hacks. He'll be a disaster as President and I hope he doesn't get that far.
Hmm, Anonymous, very nuanced and detailed defense of your position. Its missing a few facts, however. Care to fill us all in on Bill's experience and accomplishments in AR before he became president? Also, how old was he when he became president? Wasn't he the exact same age as Obama?
More to the point, what actual legislative or executive experience does Hillary have? Or McCain? As it appears you are not voting for Obama, I'm just wondering what experience the others have that is moving you? I'm glad to debate this.
Congratulations JoannaC. You've successfully turned me off of B.H.O.
how intelligent. can't argue with that.
Lincoln served ONE term in the congress before running for president, he was pretty smart and not a bad orator too. Obama could certainly be as great. McCain is an opportunist. I look forward to hearing them in debates. McCain may decide he has made a mistake inviting Obama to so many town hall meetings.
I predict that the closer we get to the general election the more McCain will implode. He will have a melt-down in a debate/town hall meeting. He will feel increasing anxiety from pressure from the party to not screw-up and win. He will ultimately decide he really doesn't want to be the President in the last years of his life.
Statistically, there is less than a 50/50 chance McCain will live another 4-8 years, which makes his VP choice really important. He must choose someone who can be president because there would be a very good chance he or she would get that job.
It wouldn't happen but Obama's best dream choice for veep is Colin Powell. All he has to do is get Powell to admit he was manipulated by the Bush administration and apologize first.