The End of the Clinton Strategy
Tuesday was a decisive night for Barack Obama.
Hillary Clinton won Indiana, barely, giving her as many states on the day as Obama got.
But the result made clear one thing: It doesn't matter anymore.
Ever since she fell hopelessly behind Obama in the pledged-delegate and popular-vote counts during a string of February defeats, Clinton has clung to a long-shot nomination strategy. She would not be able to overtake him in delegates or popular votes in the late primaries, but she could use them to shake Democrats’ confidence in Obama as a general-election candidate.
This would mean winning overwhelmingly in the late states where she was favored and picking off some or all of those that he had been expected to win. Only then, with Clinton making a compelling case that Obama’s supporters were abandoning him in droves, would superdelegates—loath to overturn “the will of the people” and to risk the devastating intraparty warfare that would come from thwarting an African-American who won a pledged-delegate majority in the primaries—be receptive to lining up with her en masse.
To Clinton’s credit, she strung this all out longer than many thought she could. She won in Ohio and Texas on March 4, when defeat would have meant the end for her. Then she pulled out Pennsylvania on April 22, and suddenly the wind seemed to be at her back. She began receiving a hearing from some opinion-makers on her specious “big state” argument and her questions about Obama’s seeming inability to connect with white working-class voters (something that made the coverage of Jeremiah Wright’s untimely reemergence all the more devastating for him). For the first time since January, Clinton picked up a new batch of superdelegate endorsements and when she latched onto a gas-tax-holiday plan and began bashing “elitists,” game-changing wins in Indiana and North Carolina suddenly became plausible.
So much for that.
Obama has absolutely clobbered her in North Carolina. As of this writing, the final numbers aren’t known, but it’s clear that his margin will be well into double digits. The Clintons can claim that this is an improvement from polls conducted months ago—their surrogates seem to be engaged in an informal competition to one-up each other in stating the initial size of her deficit; Terry McAuliffe said 25 points, while Governor Mike Easley went with 34—but political observers, and superdelegates in particular, know better. The North Carolina results do not suggest any significant erosion in Obama’s standing in the state during what has been a very rough few weeks for him.
This alone is enough to derail the Clinton strategy. A win in North Carolina would have been powerful evidence that Democrats are turning on Obama and that the character attacks had rendered him unelectable. A very narrow loss might have helped the Clintons make this case as well. But a landslide defeat?
The implications of the Carolina result are many. First, it reaffirms—yet again—the lack of momentum in this race. The outcome of just about every state has been predictable well in advance. This was true in the Clinton states of New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania (among others) and it proved true in North Carolina on Tuesday. For all of the poll fluctuations before all of these contests, primary day has inevitably resulted in states reverting to form. That there was no measurable momentum in North Carolina is even more significant, because Obama couldn’t have possibly endured a worse two weeks than these past two.
This means that the remaining few contests are basically foregone conclusions. Clinton will win West Virginia next week, Kentucky on the 20th and Puerto Rico on May 1. Obama will win Oregon in two weeks and South Dakota and Montana on June 3. A split, in other words—not the decisive and jaw-dropping series of late wins that Clinton absolutely had to have.
North Carolina also essentially locks in Obama’s edge in the popular vote. His margin should undo whatever benefit Clinton reaped from her win in Pennsylvania. No fair and reasonable calculation of the cumulative popular vote at the end of this process will show Clinton ahead. It is now mathematically inconceivable.
Against these realities, the Indiana results almost don’t matter. Obviously, if Obama ends up ahead when all the votes are tallied, the race will end on the spot, and Clinton won’t even have license to pursue meaningless wins in West Virginia and Kentucky. But even if Clinton hangs on, it will be for show.
Clinton’s strategy since Feb. 5 never stood much chance of working and allowed room for absolutely no slip-ups. Now it’s over.
- Poll
- Obama (D)
- McCain(R)
- Spread
- RCP Average
- 49.8
- 43.6
- Obama +6.2
- Candidate
- Favorable
- Unfavorable
- Spread
- Obama
- 54.9
- 36.1
- +18.8
- McCain
- 50.7
- 39.6
- +11.1
Anonymous is Sad :(
Anonymous is also stupid.
Ah yes, North Carolina, land of the Nifongers and the black voting bloc. Michael Jackson could win in North Carolina. Dig?
Hillary is LEADING the popular vote when you factor in Florida and Michigan.
Do these races not count?
FL and MI held primary elections for Governor, Congress, Senators... are those votes "thrown out" too, or did Howard Dean just decide to disenfranchise FL & MI for the President only?
What a joke.
Enjoy nominating another liberal dove, because just like McGovern, Dukakis, & Kerry, Obama will FLAME OUT in the general and not even get 200 Electoral votes.
Say goodbye to ohio, dems.
Say goodbye to Pennsylvania, too.
Michigan? Helooooo Mccain.
Heck the old guy might even take Minnesota, the GOP convention is there.
The dems are IDIOTS for choosing Obama. Idiots.
Just wait until another 'october surprise'.
Hillary was a total media creation from the git-go. They just got bored with her. Obama is another total media creation. He'll tank in November and the media will wring their hands and ask, why? Because the media is comprised of snooty, elitists, who couldn't find their ass with both hands.
"President Obama",....sounds spooky.
Mr. Kornacki, I would like to actually engage the substance of your piece instead of random, insubstantial personal musings like most of the idiots that have posted before me.
I agree with most of your analysis, but I have trouble actually believing that such rational thinking will prevail within the Clinton campaign. I have read most of your post-primary analyses and recaps, and you seem to repeatedly come to the same conclusion - that Clinton cannot win and that she will drop out. Yet, she has never followed this apparently correct evaluation of her chances. Why would this round be any different?
Ah yes, let's count Florida and especially Michigan, where she one a great victory against 'uncommitted'.
As for the popular vote: it's irrelevant. Or why bother having any rules?
i hope the don't "give" the nomination to hillary. she is a republican destroying the dems from within. it's all according to plan and we have her brainwashed supporters to thank for helping to accomplish her mission, which is the same mission as bush and mccain. she agreed that the fl and mi votes shouldn't count before this started. people with integrity don't propose to change the rules in the middle of the game.
All of the polls that showed her closing in NC was based on her getting more than 20% of the black vote. She ended up with less than 7%. This is why she lost by so much.
if this were about the popular vote the candidates would stick to big cities. they wouldn't bother with rural america. or caucuses. it's a delegate race. period.
Bingo! That's why we can never get rid of the electoral college, for that same reason: candidates would only campaign in the cities and the two coasts were there no electoral college.
North Carolina, big whoop. Bring on Hussein Obama and Rev. Wright, and Michelle Obama. It Dukakis time!
Finally the dust is settling - Obama may very well be our next president;
No need to be negative - he may be the candidate that may bring good change to all Americans;
All the Republicans appear to be angry that Hillary didn't make it. I wonder why???
10:27: Yeah, we get it. You’re racist. Dig?
10:45: I love it when you GOPers offer Dems advice.
Modgi: Spreading anti-Muslim prejudice. How proud you must be of yourself.
Brother Maynard: Anti-Muslim, racist and sexist. You win the bigoted GOPer mudslinger trifecta. Your handler will reward you with a hot hook-up with an AEI intern tonight.
Kornacki is right. It’s over.
I can't imagine why everyone cannot get behind Obama. Everyone complains about how corrupt Washington and how bad the past 8 years were, yet when we finally have a viable candidate, generally unnattached to special interests, everyone thinks he's elitest and inexperienced. Compare Obama and Hill's record, there's not much difference. His benifit is his (and Michelle's) backgrounds and his political method.
So if we're voting on experience, why should you pick Hillary over Obama? And why do people want John McCain in the White House over Obama if Hillary doesn't get the nomination? McCain is a good american, but he's comparable to Medvedev or Raul Castro - all have good intentions, but are incapacitated by the power structure that surrounds them.
If you're voting in the democractic primary then vote for whoever the party elects in November.
And on the note of Florida and Michigan. If you give the uncommitted votes to Obama (they're his), Hillary would only pick up 60 more delegates than Obama but Obama would get even closer to the nomination. Edwards still has his delegates he can award. He'll probably give them to whoever is ahead at the convention, although from what I've seen of him speaking, he's definitely not interested in the same ol same ol in Washington.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
MSNBC's Tim Russert: 'We Now Know Who the Nominee Will Be'
OBAMA. OBAMA. OBAMA. OBAMA. OBAMA. OBAMA. OBAMA. OBAMA.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Let's see Hillary try to "steal" this headline.
.
Ding dong the witch is dead.
If Clinton is smart, she will leave the stage now, while some still feel sympathy for her. As a New York State resident, I'd also like to add that it would be nice to have two working senators again...our state is reeling from recession, and it would be great if Hillary would do her day job.
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Superdelegates Unite ...... and tell Hillary
to either DROP OUT --- or --- DROP DEAD.
THE RACE IS OVER ... OBAMA HAS WON.
How much longer need we listen to this woman's whining and illogical math?
Superdelegates Unite ...... and tell Hillary IT IS OVER.
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All Muslims should be liquidated.
LAST GATE for HILLARY RODHAM and WILLIAM JEFFERSON, NOTORIOUS LEIBERMAN NEO-LIB CROOKS, as PREDICTED by MURPHY’S LAW, shall be HELLSGATE. LIBERAL DEMS SHALL BURN NEO-LIB PRINCESS HILLARY AT THE STAKE.
12:39: Hey, you venomous creep, don't post your racist crap under my name.
hillary did not win the texas delagate count
Die already Democrats.
How many times do we have to go over this. Obama won Texas - not HRC
I live in Michigan and would be furious if the vote counted. We all knew it wouldn't count. Some Democrats voted in the Republican race because they knew the Dem race didn't matter. My wife didn't bother because she knew it didn't matter. I voted for uncommitted because I was annoyed at Hillary for leaving her name on the ballot when the others took theirs off. I suspected at the time that she left it on so that she would get a cheap win.
So please, don't disenfranchise me by trying to enfranchise me after the fact.
President Obama --- sounds great!
At least he's not a Republican masquerading as a Democrat. Hillary started her political career as Republican - was raised in that mindset - until she hooked up with Democrat Bill. She saw this as her path to the top so she put on the Democratic costume ... but like the monkey in a tuxedo, that wily tail pops up every now & then, especially when she gets excited.
There is no truth core in the Clintons - they got away with crimes for decades. They proved they are best at the corrupt politician game, and played us all for suckers. Let them die their unholy death & ride off into infamy. We are sick of them and their kind of politics.
That's why Obama (love that name - even babies like to say it!) will easily beat McCain - John is just a "Clinton-lite" version of fraud, losing his honor a little more each day. He is sucked into the nasty side of politics and is sinking ... he is old, forgetful, uninformed, and doesn't care.
No matter what your party, platform, prejudices, fears may be, Obama is best for the country at this crucial point in time. He will unite us (those who are unite-able) and solve some real problems - not piss on our legs and swear it's raining.
I am sad to say that it looks as if I'll be voting Republican for the first time. The Obama nomination marks the ascendancy of the Park Avenue liberal and the final suppression of working- and middle-class voices in the Democratic party.
Tragically, the Democrats have been commandeered by the quixotic causes of the Harvard-Hollywood set, a gaggle of "birthright" swells and fringe leftists who have grand ideas for a society that they don't even understand. None of these clowns knows what life is like for the average American. To her everlasting credit, Hillary Clinton is trying to talk about real-world issues like universal health care, but she's being drowned out by polar liberals who are more concerned with placating racist blacks, gays, illegal immigrants, and Guantanamo inmates.
Incidentally, I'm far from alone in my stance. Given the tidal wave of pro-Obama coverage, I simply assumed that mine was a minority position, but I've recently learned that about half my friends, all of whom are lifelong Democrats, will also be voting for McCain. I was shocked and elated.
We need to send a message to the Democratic party: your base is the white working- and middle-class, not "Sharpton" blacks; not activist gays; not illegal immigrants; not Guantanamo inmates, not envirolunatics, and not African charities. No. Your base is the white working- and middle-class, and they are furious with the shit you have pulled. They will make you or break you in November, as they did in each of the last two elections, when you managed to lose to a functional illiterate.
Ignore them at your own peril.
as a former new yorker i have a question... how will this primary fiasco affect her chances to win re-election as the senator from new york... should she choose to run?