Winners: Johnson, Dear, Vito, Vito's Opponents, Kilgore Trout, Numberologist
It was a split decision yesterday for Brooklyn Democratic County Leader Vito Lopez, who backed one winning judicial candidate (Noach Dear) and one losing judicial candidate (Shawndya Simpson) in yesterday’s primaries.
It was a mixed result in another way, too: Dear was panned by the New York City Bar Association and the New York Times, Lopez’s other judicial candidate won more support from those same institutions.
So, how should we interpret yesterday’s results, in terms of the Brooklyn party organization?
Democratic consultant Scott Levenson, who has won his share of races in that borough, told me last night,
“It’s not just machine politics in Brooklyn. Thinking voters voted for an under-funded candidate with less name recognition [Diana Johnson] because she was more qualified and not the machine candidate. Other insurgent candidates will take notice.”
Another observer of the political scene, who prefers to go by the name Kilgore Trout, emailed me this morning to say,
“I think that this proves that Brooklyn is completely up for grabs by the non institutional players. Neither the Times nor the party hold enough sway to be deciding factors these days.”
According to unofficial results as of last night, Johnson defeated Simpson 60-40.
Most of the predictions I got for that race had it a lot closer. The one that didn't, and which wound up being the most accurate, was from the aforementioned Kilgore Trout, who called it at 61-39.
According to unofficial results as of last night, Noach Dear defeated Karen Yellen 60 to 40 percent. Again, most of the guesses had Yellen coming a lot closer than that. The closest guess belonged to Numberologist, who projected Dear to win 58-42.
I hope nobody spends too much time try to find cosmic significance in a Primary where less than 5% of Democrats voted.
You forgot Kathy Levine; another Vito victory
Based on both the Civil Court races and the Surrogate Court race, yesterday resulted in many more victories than losses for Assemblyman Lopez.
But I do think that there are a couple of good lessons to be learned from the Surrogate Court race.
First, name recognition from a recent election matters. Johnson lost a very close race two years ago, and that means that people all over Brooklyn, especially African American voters, not by any means a monolithic entity, had an attachment and a certain amount of loyalty to her as a candidate. On this issue, I think it should be remembered that the reason her last race was so close was because of the support that Johnson received then from Assemblyman Lopez. Although Simpson has run county wide before, that race was over four years ago, and her name recognition with voters had dwindled.
Second, negative campaigning will lower voter turnout among voters without an allegiance when it involves an intra-party election. For those people that did not already have a favorite (the great majority of Brooklyn voters) all of the mud slinging made them think twice about voting at all. While “swift boating” may work in partisan campaigns between parties, since they can serve as meat for each parties base, in intra-party fights they can have a very different result. To be fair to Assemblyman Lopez, he made clear that the last minute negative pieces were none of his doing.
Once again Scott Levinson is spending so much time in the tanning bed, that his few remaining brain cells are poaching in his cerebrospinal fluid. Simpson ran a lousy campaign. How bad was it? The county leader denounced his own candidate's mailings. The only people who should take notice are organization-backed candidates who suck. But, since they suck, they won't take notice.
Vito has been a strong supporter of diversity in Brooklyn and the fact that the first African American WOMAN judge is elected to the Surrogate bench is a win for vito, for Brooklyn, and for the State of NY. We have to stop spreading these false ideas of Brooklyn, and stick together.
I searched Brooklyn and noticed that Brooklyn is home to so many influential people around the country--including one senator from each party (Schumer D-NY, Sanders I-VT, and Coleman R-MN). We have to UNITE instead of constantly attack each other. This is the one and only time in Brooklyn's history that we have a Leader that is passionate about making change and isn't worried about himself. This is the first time that a Leader is passionate about electing diverse people to the bench (supporting a Gay, a Latino, an African American)
The media needs to begin highlighting the good about Brooklyn (our great county leader, the great Borough President, all the wonderful State Legislators--specially the new blood i.e. Jeffries, Adams, etc.--the most intellectual individuals on our bench)and then maybe we might be able to once again have the influence we once had. One point in history we elected mayors, governors, and presidents from Brooklyn.
However, the media keeps painting this "corrupt" image of Brooklyn, and it needs to cease. Pessimism can only take the Borough so far. Lets take advantage of the great leadership and move forward.